Chapter Four: Winds Rise and Clouds Gather
Moltke and Bismarck had never truly gotten along; it was only through the mediation of Count Roon during his lifetime that the two managed to coexist in relative peace. As the old saying goes, "When the lips are gone, the teeth feel the cold." Now, with the new emperor ascending the throne and placing his trust in a mysterious man from the East, both Bismarck and Moltke felt uneasy, naturally turning to each other for support.
After listening to Moltke’s complaints, Bismarck remained silent for a long time.
“Chancellor, this matter concerns us directly. If an outsider were to gain control of the empire’s military, I fear—”
“Marshal, how can you be sure he truly is an outsider?”
Moltke was startled; he hadn’t expected Bismarck to say such a thing.
“His Majesty’s intentions are clear: Feng Chengqian saved his life. Can such a man be considered an outsider?”
“But—”
“His Majesty has already ennobled Feng Chengqian as Count of Brandenburg, granting him a title equal to ours. He is now a peer of the realm,” Bismarck exhaled deeply as he spoke. “With a new emperor comes the appointment of new ministers. Though you and I are veterans of the empire, one day we too will step down. Why trouble ourselves so much over it?”
Moltke frowned deeply, thoroughly perplexed.
“His Majesty has stated that the Minister of War is to be responsible solely for armaments; all other matters remain in the Marshal’s hands.”
“Armaments are a matter of national importance. How can we—?”
“So long as the army remains in your hands, what is there to fear?”
“This...”
“I hear you have already tendered your resignation to His Majesty?” Bismarck glanced at Moltke, apparently displeased that he would consider stepping down at such a time.
Moltke sighed inwardly. “Though we are elder statesmen of the empire, even we may one day be cast aside when our usefulness ends.”
“Marshal, is it not a bit premature for such talk?”
“What do you mean, Chancellor?”
“With the late emperor’s passing, turbulent times are to be expected.” Bismarck heaved a sigh. “Today, I received word that France will provide a loan of four hundred million francs to Russia.”
“Is the report reliable?”
“Very reliable. There will soon be more to follow. France will spare no effort to win Russia over—perhaps even offering more loans in the future.”
“So France means to stir up trouble.”
Bismarck nodded, then fell into thought.
Since the Napoleonic era, France and Germany had been mortal enemies. At Waterloo, it was the Prussian army under Marshal Blücher that aided Wellington in defeating Napoleon. Eighteen years ago, Napoleon III of France was defeated and captured at Sedan; German troops marched into Paris, and Emperor Wilhelm was crowned in the Palace of Versailles, marking the birth of the German Second Empire. The glory of the empire was thus built upon France’s humiliation.
After the Franco-Prussian War, Alsace and Lorraine were ceded to the empire, making reconciliation between France and Germany impossible.
Moltke pondered for a long time before speaking again. “If France and Russia form an alliance, there will inevitably be another great war on the continent. The empire will likely face a two-front conflict.”
“That is precisely what we must strive to avoid.”
Moltke nodded, understanding Bismarck’s point.
Since the Franco-Prussian War, Bismarck’s foreign policy had always sought to improve the empire’s position on the continent and avoid simultaneous conflict with both France and Russia.
It must be admitted, the empire’s geopolitical situation was far from ideal.
If forced to fight both France and Russia at once, the empire would be pressed dangerously on two fronts.
“What are your thoughts?” Bismarck now turned the question to Waldersee and Schlieffen.
Waldersee, chosen by Moltke as his successor, served as the empire’s Quartermaster General and had long been Moltke’s close companion.
Schlieffen was an unusual officer—still a major general at fifty-five, he had only joined the General Staff at thirty-two, never directly participating in a major battle, yet he enjoyed Moltke’s deep regard. Currently, he was head of the Department of Military History and worked alongside Waldersee to assist Moltke.
“Even if France and Russia unite, they are not to be feared,” Waldersee said confidently.
Perhaps from years by Moltke’s side, Waldersee had come to resemble him in many ways, displaying all the hallmark traits of the quintessential Prussian officer.
Bismarck smiled and shifted his gaze to Schlieffen.
“If it’s only France and Russia, then indeed, there’s little to fear,” Schlieffen replied after a brief pause. “The key lies in whether there are other potential enemies beyond France and Russia.”
“General, why do you think so?”
“The Franco-Russian alliance lacks one essential condition.”
“What is that?”
“A binding agent to hold these two nations together.”
Bismarck’s brow twitched as he signaled for Schlieffen to continue.
“France prides itself on being a nation of democracy and liberty, while Russia is the most backward feudal monarchy on the continent. Thus, in France, there is no public support for an alliance with Russia,” Schlieffen paused briefly before continuing, “Moreover, there is no irreconcilable conflict between the empire and Russia, so Russia likewise lacks a foundation for joining France. Without an external factor, a Franco-Russian alliance is impossible in the short term.”
“If such a factor were to appear, what would it be?”
Schlieffen hesitated before answering, “There is only one country that could bring France and Russia together.”
Bismarck nodded thoughtfully, and both Moltke and Waldersee understood what Schlieffen was implying.
Only Britain could make a Franco-Russian alliance possible.
With this, the matter was clear: if France and Russia were to form an alliance soon, Britain must also be involved—meaning the empire would face three powerful enemies at once.
Bismarck glanced at Moltke and Waldersee, sighing inwardly.
Even Waldersee lacked the confidence to defeat three such foes at once.
“Marshal, you must now see why you cannot resign.”
Moltke sighed. “Be that as it may, I am old and can only serve until the end of the year. His Majesty has agreed that I may then retire to my home.”
“Is your mind made up, Marshal?”
Moltke nodded and said no more.
Bismarck too sighed inwardly and let the matter drop.
That night, many others besides them found sleep elusive—Queen Victoria, Crown Prince Wilhelm, even those far away in Downing Street felt the tremors.
Salisbury received the news during dinner: Emperor Frederick III had appointed a man named Feng Chengqian as Minister of War, putting him in charge of the empire’s military preparations.
The British Prime Minister’s first reaction was that it was absurd.
But then Salisbury considered that this mysterious man from the East must be extraordinary indeed.
Over half a year ago, when Frederick was still crown prince, he had been diagnosed with throat cancer, already at an advanced stage. Because he refused surgery before the tumor metastasized, his condition had only worsened. A month ago, Salisbury had heard again that Frederick had refused surgery.
According to Mackenzie’s report, Frederick had only a short time left to live.
Yet not only did Frederick survive, he ascended the throne and immediately appointed Feng Chengqian as Minister of War.
Salisbury had heard the rumors, but hadn’t taken them seriously. Now, however, it seemed the rumors were true: it was likely this Easterner had cured Frederick.
To be so favored by the Emperor of Germany, this man was certainly no ordinary figure.
Frederick III was by no means an incompetent sovereign.
As the only son of Wilhelm-Frederick-Ludwig, Frederick had received rigorous military training from childhood, participated in all the wars leading up to the founding of the German Empire, and had distinguished himself as a corps commander in both the Austro-Prussian and Franco-Prussian wars. His talent for employing capable men was second only to Emperor Wilhelm himself.
Could such a ruler choose the wrong man?
Frederick’s decision to retain Bismarck and to persuade Moltke to stay proved he was anything but a foolish king; those whom he chose would surely be of exceptional caliber.
Clearly, Feng Chengqian had done far more than simply save Frederick’s life.
What mattered now was what sort of changes this mysterious man from the East would bring to the German Empire.
Salisbury felt not the least bit optimistic. Bismarck alone had been headache enough—now, with the addition of this enigmatic newcomer, the glory days of the British Empire were likely coming to an end.
That very night, Salisbury sent agents to Berlin to investigate Feng Chengqian’s background.
For the moment, however, the Prime Minister had not told the Queen. Since Feng Chengqian’s situation was still unclear, Salisbury saw no need to trouble Her Majesty just yet.
As for France’s loan to Russia, Salisbury paid it little mind.
Britain’s long-standing policy had always been to avoid alliances with any great continental power, preferring instead to use the lesser states to balance the strongest. For example, during the Napoleonic era, Britain had united with Russia, Prussia, and Austria to form the anti-Napoleonic alliance, ultimately defeating Napoleon at Waterloo and dashing his dreams of continental supremacy. Later, Britain had joined forces with France and Austria-Hungary during the Crimean War, dealing a harsh blow to Russia’s ambitions in the Balkans.
Britain’s continental policy had a single core objective: preventing the rise of any overwhelmingly powerful state on the European mainland.
Whether it was Napoleon’s First French Empire, Nicholas I’s Russian Empire, or Frederick III’s German Empire, so long as they threatened Britain’s vital interests, they became Britain’s adversaries and targets for containment.
The current German Empire closely resembled the First French Empire of old.
In strength, Germany far surpassed France and Russia, its power nearly equal to Britain’s; given time, it would pose a grave threat.
What worried Salisbury even more was that the German Empire was not content with dominance in Europe alone—Bismarck had already declared Germany’s desire for “a place in the sun,” aggressively seeking colonies in West Africa, East Africa, East Asia, and the Pacific.
Should Germany acquire vast overseas colonies, it would cease to be merely a continental power.
Moreover, the resource-rich colonies had long since been carved up by the great powers, and only barren lands remained. If Germany attempted to seize colonies from others, it would disrupt the existing world order, rendering Britain’s decades of careful efforts fruitless.
Britain was the greatest beneficiary of the current world order; if it were disturbed, Britain would suffer most.
Before long, the German Empire would become a threat equal to that of Napoleon’s First French Empire, and Britain would again face a challenge of life and death.
In such a case, forging a Franco-Russian alliance—or at least facilitating one—was a highly desirable course of action.