Chapter Sixty: Doing One’s Best

Little Maoqi could not be relied upon, so Feng Chengqian had no choice but to depend on himself. He spent a month thoroughly studying the army’s strategic plan as revised by Little Maoqi, and from it, he gained some insights.

It was clear that the Imperial Army’s hope for a swift victory over France was rather slim.

However, this did not mean the Empire was destined to lose the continental war.

Having thought it through, Feng Chengqian went to see Tirpitz. Though he was only a staff officer at the Imperial Navy Headquarters, as the former Minister of the Navy, Feng Chengqian’s standing there was no less than Tirpitz’s; Tirpitz’s title as commander was merely an appointment from the Kaiser.

“So what you mean is…”

“Though the navy commands the seas and the army commands the land, the Empire’s situation is unique. Even with His Majesty’s favor, the navy cannot replace the army. Besides, the Empire must first triumph on land before it can hope for victory at sea, so we must prioritize the ground war.”

“Even if you think so, Little Maoqi won’t appreciate it.”

“I’m not doing this for his gratitude.”

“You can’t influence him, let alone change anything.”

Feng Chengqian smiled and said, “I never expected to make Little Maoqi change the army’s strategic plan. I just think we need some remedial measures.”

“What kind of remedial measures?”

“In your opinion, what is the key to the Empire winning the continental war?”

“Defeating France, of course.”

“And Russia?”

Tirpitz paused, then said, “Though I’m not an army man, I don’t think we need to fear Russia at all.”

“Why is that?”

“The Russo-Japanese War.”

Feng Chengqian smiled, waiting for Tirpitz to continue.

“I didn’t see the battlefield myself, but from what I’ve heard and the reports from the front, the Russian army’s combat strength is not as formidable as we imagined. It’s true that Russia has vast manpower and can conscript enormous numbers of soldiers, but war is not just a contest of numbers. In my view, Russia’s only advantage is its population; in all other respects, it is far behind the traditional powers like Britain and France, and even lags behind new powers like Japan. Moreover, internal conflicts within the Russian army are extremely sharp. For example, during the Russo-Japanese War, Russian generals often quarreled, even dueling over trivial matters. One of our observing officers personally witnessed two Russian army group commanders draw their swords and duel.”

“Who was that?”

“Max Hoffmann. You should know him.”

Feng Chengqian nodded, recognizing the name. Back during the wargame against Moltke, Hoffmann had been on Feng Chengqian’s team and had performed outstandingly, which was why he had been promoted to active duty. When Tirpitz went to the Far East as fleet commander, Hoffmann had accompanied him, serving as the Empire’s military observer in Manchuria.

“In any case, I don’t see Russia as a threat.”

“Although what you said is not wrong, you’re only seeing the surface.”

Tirpitz frowned, waiting for Feng Chengqian to continue.

“After the Russo-Japanese War, why did the Tsar yield, not only withdrawing completely from Manchuria but also ceding half of Sakhalin and the southern Kurils to Japan?”

“Well…”

“Don’t forget, after the Battle of Tsushima, it wasn’t Russia but Japan that first proposed peace talks, even though the Japanese had not yet captured Port Arthur.”

Tirpitz nodded thoughtfully, pondering the meaning behind Feng Chengqian’s words.

“It’s clear that the side unable to continue fighting was not Russia, but Japan. With Russia’s resources, even if they couldn’t win, they could have kept going; there was no need to rush into an armistice. The reason the Tsar yielded was not because the Japanese were so formidable or the Russians so weak, but because of internal trouble.”

“You mean…”

“If there had been no revolution at home, the Tsar would never have ceded territory. After the war, the Tsar undertook political reforms at home. Though far from thorough, their aim was clear: to placate the opposition and show an intent to move toward democracy. It’s undeniable that the Tsar’s insincere gestures had a temporary effect, and Russia’s domestic situation has remained relatively stable for a few years. Yet it’s equally undeniable that, in the next great war, the immense pressure of conflict will cause Russia’s internal contradictions to erupt.”

“So you mean Russia will collapse under the strain of war?”

“Even if it doesn’t collapse, it will unilaterally negotiate peace with us and withdraw from a long, drawn-out war to focus on its domestic troubles. If things go even worse—say, the Romanov dynasty is overthrown—Russia will still exit the war on its own.” Feng Chengqian paused, then added, “So you see, Russia’s biggest problem lies in its corrupt and autocratic system.”

“In any case, Russia is clearly not the primary threat.”

“The Empire’s greatest threat lies across the English Channel.”

“Britain?”

Feng Chengqian nodded. “I’ve looked closely at Little Maoqi’s revised Western Front plan. Though it has many loopholes and lacks clarity, so long as we hold the initiative, with the fighting power of our army, it won’t be too hard to gain the upper hand early on. However, according to Little Maoqi’s plan, it’s basically impossible to fully defeat France.”

“So you’re saying Britain will enter the war before France falls.”

“That is exactly what I’m most worried about.” Feng Chengqian exhaled deeply. “Russia will certainly join the war; whatever impact that has, it won’t be enough to change the course of events. Besides, Russia can only act on the Eastern Front, at most tying down our forces there, but it can’t send troops to France to fight alongside the French. The only country that can actually send forces to France is Britain.”

“But the British Army is almost a nonentity, and—”

“Is that really so?”

Tirpitz was taken aback, realizing Feng Chengqian meant something else.

“Before I resigned, I met with Field Marshal Waldersee and discussed the matter of the coalition. In terms of individual quality, British officers and men are in no way inferior to ours, and the British Army, having fought overseas for years, is richly experienced; its professional military system is also well-developed. The British Army may be small, but its combat ability is not to be underestimated. Moreover, British intervention would boost French morale.”

“In that case, we must strive for command of the sea.”

“Near the British Isles, especially in the early stages, we cannot achieve naval supremacy.”

“Well then…”

“Obviously, that means we cannot prevent Britain from sending an expeditionary force to France.” Feng Chengqian paused. “But there is one way left, a means to prevent or at least delay Britain’s intervention.”

“What is it?”

“Don’t give Britain a reason to enter the war.”

“That…”

“To this day, Britain has not signed any formal alliance treaty with France or Russia, and before war breaks out in Europe, it is unlikely to do so. Thus, Britain cannot declare war on us merely for attacking France.”

“So Britain would need a reason to join the war.”

“General, what do you think Britain would use as a pretext?”

Tirpitz hesitated, then smiled. “I have no idea. In fact, this is the first time I’ve seriously considered the question.”

“Have you seen Little Maoqi’s plan?”

“I have, but only briefly.”

“Then what do you think is the main difference between his plan and Field Marshal Schlieffen’s?”

“Well…”

“What I noticed first is this: after shifting troops from the main offensive direction on the Western Front to strengthen the border defenses, Little Maoqi, to reduce the difficulty of the main attack, drastically shortened the distance for the offensive, making the entry point not Holland but Belgium.”

“Isn’t that a reasonable choice?”

“From a purely military perspective, yes. But politically, it’s a grave mistake.”

“Why?” Tirpitz was momentarily confused, then suddenly understood. “You mean…”

“In 1839, Britain signed the Treaty of London with Belgium, obliging Britain to guarantee Belgian independence and sovereignty. Field Marshal Schlieffen had taken this into account when planning—so he bypassed Belgium, entering Holland first, which would force France to extend its defenses northward and be the first to enter Belgium. In that context, even if Britain wished to intervene, it would have to consider that France, not we, was the first to violate Belgian neutrality. Simply put, Britain would lose its immediate cause for war. Even if Britain eventually joined the war, all we need is a few months. Once we’ve taken Paris, British intervention would be meaningless. At that point, Britain would have no choice but to accept the new reality and acknowledge the Empire’s dominance on the continent.” Feng Chengqian finished in one breath, then paused before continuing, “Unfortunately, Little Maoqi has failed to consider the consequences of invading Belgium. He hasn’t understood why Field Marshal Schlieffen chose a longer route and is obsessed only with speed. If I’m right, the moment Little Maoqi’s forces enter Belgium, Britain will declare war on us within twenty-four hours.”

Tirpitz pondered this for a while before saying, “You’re right; Britain will surely invoke the Treaty of London and use our invasion of Belgium as its casus belli.”

“We must do everything we can to make Little Maoqi revise his plan—and it would be best if you were the one to approach him.”

Tirpitz sighed. “Even if I did, it would be hard to make Little Maoqi change his mind. After all, in army matters, I have little say.”

“Then we must report directly to His Majesty.”

“In that case, it would be best to bring the Crown Prince as well. If we go together, we’ll have a better chance of convincing His Majesty to put pressure on Little Maoqi.”

“There’s still time. Why don’t we go see the Crown Prince right now?”