Chapter Sixty-One: The Crisis of War

As 1914 dawned, the storm clouds of war loomed heavily over the European continent.

Though the Moroccan crisis three years prior had eventually been resolved through mutual compromise between Germany and France, the antagonism between the two powers had reached an irreconcilable stage. Over the following two years, nearly every continental conflict involved these rivals—France sought to reclaim Alsace and Lorraine, while the German Empire strove to forge a military alliance to counter the Franco-Russian pact, actively courting Austria-Hungary and Italy.

Nowhere was the German-French rivalry more acute than in the Balkans.

Strictly speaking, neither Germany nor France had direct interests in the Balkans; the region’s affairs concerned Austria-Hungary, Italy, Russia, and the Ottoman Empire, with the most pronounced tension between Austria-Hungary and Russia. Germany and France merely stood as their respective allies.

In a sense, it was the Austro-Russian conflict in the Balkans that prompted Germany and Austria-Hungary to sign a secret alliance treaty.

But did an alliance with Austria-Hungary truly benefit the German Empire?

It was only upon his return to the Imperial Naval Command that Feng Chengqian learned of the secret military treaty signed two years ago—just months after his departure from the Imperial Navy. The Kaiser and Austria-Hungary had agreed that should Austria-Hungary go to war with Russia, Germany would declare war on Russia, but Austria-Hungary was only obliged to join the conflict if France initiated hostilities against Germany.

Clearly, this treaty favored Austria-Hungary more than Germany.

Feng Chengqian, without question, did not support such an alliance. Had he remained Minister of Naval War, he would surely have opposed the signing. There was a grave issue with aligning with Austria-Hungary: it risked alienating Italy.

No matter Italy’s worth, on the continent, only Italy and Austria-Hungary possessed the strength to assist Germany against France and Russia.

Over a decade ago, Feng Chengqian had advised the Kaiser to win over both Russia and Italy.

Regrettably, by the time he made this suggestion, German-Russian relations had soured, and under the Iron Chancellor’s grip, not even the newly crowned Kaiser could readily influence foreign policy, much less alter Bismarck’s carefully constructed diplomatic strategy.

Evidently, even had Feng Chengqian remained at the Navy Department, he would have struggled to change the course of events.

Despite Austria-Hungary’s hollow strength—its complex ethnic makeup and the shortcomings of the dual monarchy severely undermined its power—in the face of the established Franco-Russian alliance and Britain’s gradual tilt towards them, Germany had no better option for alliance.

After forging ties with Austria-Hungary, Germany had to carefully manage its relations with Italy.

For Foreign Minister Bernstorff, this was a formidable task.

Since early 1913, the empire’s diplomatic efforts had focused on reconciling Austria-Hungary and Italy, aiming to eliminate internal discord within the Triple Alliance.

Yet, after more than a year, progress remained elusive.

Territorial disputes, particularly over the region of Salonika, between Austria-Hungary and Italy were severe; even the Kaiser’s intervention could not bring the two sides to the negotiating table. While Italy showed no overt signs of abandoning the Axis, it had begun secret contacts with Britain and France.

By this stage, it was plain to all: the Balkans had become Europe’s powder keg.

Curiously, few believed a continental war would ignite from the Balkans.

On Balkan matters, Britain, France, Germany, Russia, Austria-Hungary, Italy, and the Ottoman Empire had launched negotiations, the central issue being how to manage the regional crisis sparked by Serbian expansion and to stabilize other Balkan states, such as Bulgaria, Romania, and Greece.

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To many, the Balkan crisis still seemed amenable to resolution through negotiation.

This sentiment echoed within the empire.

When Feng Chengqian and Tirpitz followed the Crown Prince to the Potsdam Palace, Frederick III had just seen off the Chancellor and was preparing to dine.

It was Feng Chengqian’s first visit in over two years to the palace built by Frederick the Great.

His return, especially as an Imperial Navy officer, delighted the Kaiser, who ordered the kitchen to prepare dishes Feng Chengqian favored.

"Your Majesty..."

"Say no more; Wilhelm has already told me everything. Your return to the Imperial Navy and your service to the empire bring me great comfort." Frederick III had aged considerably, but he did not resemble an old man of nearly eighty-three—more like someone in his sixties.

The reason was clear only to Feng Chengqian.

Indeed, Feng Chengqian himself did not appear to be nearing fifty; by his looks, many would guess him not yet forty.

The secret lay in his blood.

In Feng Chengqian’s own era, advances in genetic engineering and nanotechnology had extended human lifespan to two hundred forty years. Feng Chengqian cured the Kaiser’s throat cancer with a blood oath because his blood contained nanorobots. Smaller than cells, these robots not only helped the body fend off bacteria and viruses and eradicate cancerous cells, but also improved genes to lengthen life. For over twenty years, neither had suffered illness—the Kaiser remained healthy, never even catching a cold.

Of course, the Kaiser would not live to two hundred forty.

"Are you adjusting well at Naval Command?"

"Everything is fine. Wherever I am, as long as I can serve the empire and Your Majesty, I am content."

The Kaiser smiled. "Wilhelm has spoken of you often these past two years, saying the Imperial Navy could never have grown strong without you."

Feng Chengqian smiled back, nodding to the Crown Prince across the table in thanks.

"You shouldn’t have left," the Kaiser sighed. "These years, with you gone, I’ve often found myself at a loss for counsel."

"With the Chancellor and ministers to advise, Your Majesty..."

"The Chancellor? Best not mention him. As for the other ministers, few bring me peace of mind. Today, Bethmann suggested I personally sign a guarantee with old Franz, then a similar pact with Italy, to foster reconciliation between Austria-Hungary and Italy over the Balkan issue. While Bethmann’s intentions are good, it is divorced from reality. Unless the territorial disputes between Austria-Hungary and Italy are resolved, any agreement is mere empty words." The Kaiser paused, then continued, "If you were here, you would not have made such a suggestion, or at least opposed it when Bethmann did. Unfortunately, now not only Bethmann but the other ministers think we can broker Austro-Italian reconciliation."

Feng Chengqian pondered for a moment. "Your Majesty’s judgment is sound, though I believe Bethmann’s proposal has some merit."

"Oh?"

"Does Your Majesty believe Italy will become the empire’s ally?"

Frederick III remained silent, his mind already made up.

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"But Your Majesty overlooks a crucial point: Italy also has territorial disputes with France, even more severe than with Austria-Hungary. Otherwise, Italy would never have signed a secret alliance with us in the first place."

"You mean..."

"Even if Italy proves unreliable as an ally, it will not soon become our enemy."

Frederick III nodded thoughtfully, as if grasping Feng Chengqian’s meaning.

"Furthermore, Your Majesty, when do you believe the European war will break out?"

"That..."

"To a great extent, it is not politicians or soldiers who decide war, but those who control the lifeblood of nations—entrepreneurs, merchants, financiers, and the like. The essence of war is the struggle for interests, and the greatest of these is economic." Feng Chengqian exhaled deeply. "Europe’s situation has deteriorated so far that, whether for us or for Britain, France, and Russia, all are on the brink of economic collapse. Take Britain: the naval arms race has driven its finances to bankruptcy. France and Russia have spent extravagantly on their armies, their treasuries long depleted. The only way to resolve the crisis is through war—a vast, sweeping war."

"You mean..."

"Not this year, then next—certainly before 1916, the European war will erupt."

Frederick III’s brow twitched; while he doubted, every prediction Feng Chengqian had made previously had been fulfilled.

"We are not the ones instigating war, but Britain, France, and Russia," Feng Chengqian said, glancing at the Kaiser. "When planning the navy’s development, I noted that around 1914, Britain would face a financial crisis due to its massive shipbuilding program. My prediction has come true. For Britain, France, and Russia, even if their preparations are incomplete, only one condition remains before war breaks out."

"What is that?"

"A legitimate pretext for war."

"That..."

"Without question, the Balkan situation offers ample opportunity—especially the delicate relationship between Austria-Hungary and Serbia."

The Kaiser nodded, agreeing with Feng Chengqian’s assessment.

"If war is inevitable, we must prepare. Whether it is Marshal Moltke the Elder, Marshal Schlieffen, or Moltke the Younger, all have emphasized one point: if the empire fails to seize the initiative early in war, defeat becomes only a matter of time."

"That is indeed a concern. But our preparations..."

"Your Majesty, the impending European war will be unprecedented. We must proceed step by step, addressing fundamentals if we hope to prevail."

"What do you plan to do?"

As the Kaiser posed the question, Feng Chengqian glanced at Crown Prince Wilhelm, signaling that the moment was ripe for the Crown Prince to explain.