Chapter Sixty-Five: The Empire's Position
Although the course of history had veered, the outcome remained unchanged.
On the afternoon of June 28, 1914, Crown Prince Ferdinand of Austria-Hungary was visiting wounded soldiers at the Sarajevo Military Hospital when he was attacked by members of the Serbian nationalist extremist organization known as the Black Hand. The pre-planted bomb not only killed the duchess accompanying him but also injured Ferdinand himself. In the early hours of the following day, at four o’clock, Ferdinand succumbed to his injuries. Within hours, the news swept across the globe.
By dawn on the twenty-ninth, the busiest people were not only the reporters rushing to rewrite tomorrow’s papers but also the leaders of every European nation.
When Feng Chengqian and Tirpitz arrived at the Potsdam Palace, most of the key ministers were already present, and the Kaiser was deep in discussion with General von Moltke about the army’s operational plans.
The two men did not stay together but immediately split up. Tirpitz went to find the Chancellor, Bethmann, while Feng Chengqian sought out the Foreign Minister, Bernstorff. It took little time for them to learn that both the Tsar and the Emperor of Austria had sent notices, demanding that the Kaiser clarify his position.
Clearly, both the Tsar and the Austrian Emperor were ready for war.
Yet the two monarchs had quite different views on the conflict. Emperor Franz Joseph of Austria-Hungary merely sought a limited war, directed solely against Serbia, with the ultimate aim of using Ferdinand’s death as a pretext to annex Serbia—or at the very least, to force Serbia to cede territory, thereby expanding Austria-Hungary’s influence in the Balkans. Based on this goal, the Emperor asked the Kaiser to exert pressure on the Tsar, to restrain Russia, and prevent it from intervening.
In the Austrian Emperor’s view, as long as the Kaiser stepped in, the Tsar would stand aside.
Evidently, the Emperor underestimated the situation.
Almost simultaneously, the Tsar sent a telegram to the Kaiser, explicitly stating that Russia could not tolerate Austria-Hungary’s expansionist actions in the Balkans. Even if Serbian extremist groups were responsible for Ferdinand’s death, the matter should be settled diplomatically, not through war.
Though he did not say it outright, the Kaiser’s nephew made it clear that Russia would not sit by idly.
It was obvious: should Austria-Hungary seize the opportunity to attack Serbia, Russia would immediately declare war as Serbia’s protector.
If matters came to this, a European war would be unavoidable.
At this moment, the Kaiser, caught between the two monarchs, faced a choice that would directly determine whether war would break out across Europe.
“What do you think?” Tirpitz asked.
“I’m afraid it’s inevitable,” Feng Chengqian replied.
Tirpitz furrowed his brow, drew Feng aside, and took a few steps toward the wall, away from the throng of civil and military officials in the hall.
“If you were His Majesty, what would you do?”
“I’m not His Majesty.”
“Just suppose. Or at least consider it from his perspective.”
“This...”
“It’s difficult, isn’t it?” Feng Chengqian sighed. “That is the Kaiser’s dilemma now. If he ignores the Austrian Emperor’s request, the German-Austrian alliance will suffer, and we will lose our only reliable ally. If he responds positively, it will inevitably prompt Austria-Hungary to move against Serbia, and Russia will likely declare war in response.”
“Then we would have to go to war with Russia.”
“And next, France would declare war on us.”
Tirpitz exhaled deeply. “According to General von Moltke’s war plan, as soon as France enters the conflict, we are to attack France first...”
“That is precisely the crux of the matter.”
“Why?”
“Although Marshal Schlieffen’s plan also prioritized the Western Front, and only after defeating France could we turn our attention east, the Marshal was quite clear about Britain’s position. He stated explicitly that we could only advance via the Netherlands, then turn south into Belgium.” Feng Chengqian paused. “The problem now is, General von Moltke has abandoned the most crucial part of that plan.”
“You mean...”
“What happens if we enter Belgium directly?”
“This...”
“If the King of Belgium refuses to grant passage, then our entry becomes an invasion. Under the Treaty of London, Britain is obligated to defend Belgium. So, even if Britain is not allied with France, it would use our invasion as a pretext to declare war on us.”
“So Marshal Schlieffen...”
“The Marshal deliberately routed our forces through the Netherlands, hoping that by lengthening the front, he would force France to enter Belgium before we did, expanding the northern defense line. As long as the French army entered Belgium first, we could claim to be preserving Belgian independence by intervening. Britain would then either join us or remain neutral, but would not declare war simply because we entered Belgium after France.”
Tirpitz nodded, indicating he understood Feng Chengqian’s meaning.
“Now you see the Kaiser’s predicament?”
“If war breaks out, it will be unprecedented, and we may not win.”
“Victory is not yet our chief concern. With things as they are, because the Kaiser cannot ignore Austria’s legitimate request, war is already unavoidable.”
“You mean...”
“No matter how strong Russia’s stance, the Kaiser should express sympathy to the Austrian Emperor for Ferdinand’s assassination and support any reasonable action. Whether or not he supports military action, the Austrian Emperor will interpret it as full support for war against Serbia, and the situation will spiral out of control.”
“There’s no other possibility?”
Feng Chengqian sighed. “You must realize—many are eager for this war.”
Just then, the Kaiser’s attendant entered the hall, summoning the ministers to the council chamber.
Although Feng Chengqian had once been Imperial Navy Minister of War, now he was merely a staff officer, not among the ministers.
Once the ministers had gone in, a guard officer approached and invited Feng Chengqian to the study.
The Kaiser had not yet gone to the council chamber; he was waiting for Feng Chengqian in the study.
“Your Majesty...”
“Sorry to keep you waiting. Please, sit.”
Feng Chengqian did not stand on ceremony. Whatever his position, the Kaiser always treated him with special regard.
“Are you aware of yesterday’s events?”
“I’ve just heard.”
Frederick III nodded. “Before you arrived, Nicholas and Franz sent telegrams asking me to state my position. I want your advice.”
“This...”
“I’ve summoned you here specifically to hear a different perspective,” the Kaiser said with a strained smile. “You know those ministers won’t offer anything insightful. You know even better—if this is mishandled, it will be more than a crisis.”
Feng Chengqian pondered for a moment. “Your Majesty, can we abandon Austria-Hungary?”
“You mean...”
“Crown Prince Ferdinand was assassinated in Sarajevo, and the killer was a Serbian extremist. If the Emperor does not retaliate, Austria-Hungary may disintegrate. Whether we support him or not, the Emperor will punish Serbia—the only way is a targeted war. At this moment, our support is crucial.”
“You think we can force the Tsar to compromise?”
“It’s difficult, but not impossible.”
“This...”
“If it is only to punish Serbia, without territorial ambitions, the Tsar might accept it. But if territory is involved, he will never concede.”
The Kaiser nodded thoughtfully, seeming to grasp Feng Chengqian’s point.
“Your Majesty, our position is critical. The slightest misstep, and war will sweep across Europe, perhaps even the world.”
“I understand, but we have no choice.”
Feng Chengqian immediately realized that the Kaiser saw war as highly likely, and that the empire would inevitably be a principal actor.
“Your Majesty...”
The Kaiser sighed, turning his gaze on Feng Chengqian.
“If there is no choice, we must prepare for the worst.”
“You mean—to prepare for war?”
Feng Chengqian nodded. “Even if we do not wish for war, if we cannot prevent its outbreak, we must be ready. Rather than let the enemy strike first, it is better to act proactively, launching an offensive when the situation favors us.”
“If war is inevitable, that is our only option.”
Seeing the Kaiser had decided, Feng Chengqian said no more.
At the subsequent council meeting, some ministers advocated active diplomacy, mediating between Austria-Hungary and Russia, but many believed that diplomatic efforts would not resolve the crisis, and the empire must prepare for war.
After the meeting, the Kaiser retained General von Moltke and Tirpitz.
Later that morning, the Kaiser sent replies to both the Austrian Emperor and the Tsar, expressing deep concern over Ferdinand’s assassination, stating that Serbian extremists must be punished, supporting the Austrian Emperor’s reasonable demands, and hoping the Tsar would empathize with Austria’s grief and help bring the perpetrators to justice. However, the Kaiser also made clear that the empire would not support Austria in making territorial claims against Serbia.
At this point, diplomatic mediation was not the sole province of the German Empire.
That day, France, Britain, Italy, and the Ottoman Empire all sent diplomatic notes to Austria-Hungary and Russia, urging both sides to resolve their differences peacefully.
Meanwhile, diplomatic activities between the German Empire and France and Britain began in earnest.
Almost everyone realized that if the Sarajevo incident was not properly resolved, a great European war would erupt—but not all were working to avert the crisis.