Chapter 67: If a Fight Is What You Want, Then a Fight It Shall Be

Russia began its war mobilization—even if only partial—which led to a sharp deterioration of the situation.

On July 21, just two hours before the ultimatum expired, the Serbian government issued its response while simultaneously ordering mobilization.

It was clear that Serbia still refused to compromise on the three most crucial points.

That same day, Russia's mobilization officially commenced.

In the afternoon, Feng Chengqian accompanied Tirpitz to the Potsdam Palace.

As on June 29, before the imperial council convened, the Kaiser summoned Feng Chengqian alone.

On the way there, Feng Chengqian had already learned from Tirpitz that the imperial council would debate whether the Empire should proceed with war mobilization.

“What do you think?” The Kaiser dispensed with formalities; a group of ministers was already waiting for him in the council chamber.

“Your Majesty, is there a second option?” Feng Chengqian did not waste words; he had already considered what he would say. “Although the Tsar claims Russia’s mobilization is directed only at Austria-Hungary, and our intelligence confirms that only Russian troops facing Austria-Hungary are being mobilized, we have pledged to Austria-Hungary that if Russia goes to war against them, we will in turn declare war on Russia.”

The Kaiser nodded, indicating he understood Feng Chengqian’s point.

“At this stage, unless a miracle occurs, war will break out within ten days.”

“So, you advocate for war?”

“It is no longer a question of whether we wish to fight, but that we must.”

The Kaiser exhaled deeply, pondering for a moment before saying, “You’re right. I have spent several days considering this, repeatedly explaining our position to the Tsar, hoping Russia might relent. Unfortunately, the Tsar offered no direct reply and instead began mobilizing his army.”

“That is hardly the Tsar’s doing alone.”

The Kaiser forced a smile. “Just as with us, when the fundamental interests of the Empire are at stake, the will of the emperor counts for little.”

“Your Majesty…”

“If war is inevitable, we must make the most thorough preparations.”

“You mean…”

“To clarify our priorities—for example, once war begins, should we focus on France, or on Russia?”

“Whom do you think we should focus on?”

“Undoubtedly, France must be our primary concern, but with a caveat.”

“What do you mean?”

“Although Russia is weaker than France in terms of national power, and its decaying social system severely hampers its army’s effectiveness, Russia possesses what France does not: vast territory. Its immense strategic depth offsets our military advantages.”

“So, we cannot defeat Russia?”

“That depends on how you define ‘defeat.’”

The Kaiser smiled, inviting Feng Chengqian to continue.

“If we seek only a military victory, we cannot defeat Russia. Napoleon vanquished all the continental powers, only to be undone in Russia’s frozen wastes. With the Empire’s current strength, it’s impossible to defeat Russia militarily, let alone occupy it.”

“So you mean…”

“To defeat Russia is not difficult—provided we do not place all our hopes in military means. Simply put, this war should be used to ignite Russia’s internal contradictions, to collapse and disintegrate Russia from within. That is the best, and indeed the only, way to defeat Russia.”

The Kaiser nodded thoughtfully, seeming to grasp Feng Chengqian’s reasoning.

“Of course, this is a process—it cannot be accomplished overnight.” Feng Chengqian paused briefly, then continued, “That is why, in the early stages of the war, we must concentrate on the Western Front and strive to defeat France in the shortest time possible. If we succeed, we have every reason to believe that without France’s cooperation, Russia cannot persevere and will surely seek peace with us.”

“In other words, a swift victory over France is the only path to success.”

Feng Chengqian hesitated briefly, then replied, “At present, that appears to be the best course. But if we cannot quickly defeat France, it does not mean we have no prospects of victory.”

“Is that so?”

“Has Your Majesty considered that this will be an unprecedented war?”

“Well…”

“Though the war has not yet begun, I can predict with confidence that this will be an unprecedented conflict, one for which previous theories are obsolete.”

“Why is that?”

“Just as the flintlock replaced the archer, new technologies create new tactics. Since the Franco-Prussian War, a host of innovations have emerged—machine guns, rapid-fire artillery, heavy guns, aircraft, and other modern weapons. These will fundamentally change the character of war. In fact, the effects are already evident. For instance, the outcome of war is now determined not solely by the fighting ability of armies, but by a nation’s comprehensive war-making capacity—especially its industrial strength.”

“You make a fair point—but what is the key?”

“The key is that in such a brutal conflict, victory will belong to whoever endures the longest.”

The Kaiser’s brow twitched. “So when you proposed creating a national strategic reserve system, you had already foreseen this?”

Feng Chengqian nodded. “To be precise, I was already considering these issues when I advocated expanding the Imperial Navy.”

Frederick III looked surprised, as if he found this hard to believe.

“Fundamentally, the Empire is an army-first nation. Yet to win this war—especially with Britain certain to intervene—we need a navy strong enough to secure victory.”

“It seems, then, that your service to the Empire is the foundation of our success.”

Feng Chengqian smiled. “Your Majesty flatters me, but my abilities alone are very limited; I cannot change the course of events.”

“Well then, let us address the central question. If we cannot quickly defeat France, do we still have hope?”

“Yes.”

The Kaiser waited in silence for Feng Chengqian to continue.

“If the war drags on, we will have to fight on two fronts, but we can still prioritize as circumstances require. In my view, we must decide whom to target based on the situation. For instance, if Russia’s internal contradictions erupt first, we should exert military pressure on Russia to hasten revolution and force her out of the war. Likewise, if France cannot withstand the losses and casualties, we must press on the Western Front, seeking terms once France can endure no more. In short, if we cannot secure a rapid victory, we must prepare for a prolonged war of attrition and adopt sound strategy.”

“In that case, what are our chances of victory?”

Feng Chengqian hesitated, then replied, “No more than fifty percent—but better than nothing.”

“Nothing?”

“If we do not fight, we have no chance at all.”

The Kaiser’s brow furrowed, as if he did not grasp Feng Chengqian’s meaning.

“With matters in Serbia at this point, if we back down, not only will all our previous efforts prove meaningless, but we will lose our only allies and, more seriously, the Empire’s prestige will be damaged. Imagine—if we compromise now, it will be difficult ever to win the trust and support of other nations.”

“That is what I fear most.”

“Your Majesty, if it comes to that, we will have no chance whatsoever.”

The Kaiser nodded thoughtfully, finally understanding Feng Chengqian’s point.

“Your analysis is precise—the Empire’s situation is dire. Whether we fight or not, the benefits gained cannot offset the risks we bear.”

“If that is Your Majesty’s view, then you are gravely mistaken.”

“Oh?”

“Though the British Foreign Secretary claims not to interfere in continental affairs and is actively mediating diplomatically, both Britain’s efforts and neutrality rest on a single premise.”

“What premise?”

“That war does not break out, and the Sarajevo incident is ultimately settled peacefully.”

“Well…”

“Does Your Majesty truly believe Britain will remain neutral once the war begins?”

The Kaiser remained silent—clearly, he did not.

“While I am not well-versed in army plans, I have every reason to believe that as long as Britain remains neutral, France and Russia have no chance of victory.”

“Britain’s army is not strong.”

“The key is not Britain’s army, but her navy—and whether our merchant fleets can sail freely on seas controlled by Britain.”

“Ah…”

“It is obvious that Britain will enter the war—and will do so before France is defeated. Otherwise, Britain cannot prevent us from dominating the continent. Do not forget—we now possess the second strongest navy after Britain. Once we control the continent, we will expand our fleet and challenge Britain’s maritime supremacy. Then, the British will regret not intervening sooner. Clearly, Britain has not forgotten the lessons of Napoleon’s era and will never tolerate our domination of Europe.”

“So, Britain will fight as an ally of France and Russia.”

Feng Chengqian nodded. “Imagine—if we win this war, we will gain not only continental supremacy. Even if we do not supplant Britain, at the very least we will stand as her equal at sea, becoming a world power on par with Britain.”

The Kaiser fell silent. This was a tangible benefit—worth any risk.

In a sense, this was the ultimate goal of the German Second Empire’s growth: an empire forged in war, seeking greater achievements through war. For Frederick III, the decision was not difficult.

Seeing the Kaiser was moved, Feng Chengqian said no more.

He had already said enough; as an adviser, he had fulfilled his duty. The decision now rested with the Kaiser.

Yet the Kaiser did not dismiss him. Summoning Feng Chengqian alone was not solely for the purpose of discussing war with Russia and France.